内容

目次

Introduction: the "theory" of demographic transition - its conciseness,diversity and flexibility - problems, methods and the field of enquiry. Part1 Stages of demographic transition: demographic transition - the currentposition; the decline in mortality; the fertility decline; divergence andconcordance; the migration transition; the notion of the cycle in demography- is post-transition fertility cyclical? Part 2 Forms of demographictransition: the types of demographic transition; chronology and typology ofthe ageing of populations; the transitional multiplier of population;industrial revolution and demographic revolution in the 18th century - theFrench-English paradox; European transitions from Malthus to Pincus;contemporary transitions - the strength of the model; revolution of mentalattitudes and demographic revolution. Part 3 Economic implications ofdemographic transition: economic stagnation and neo-Malthusianism - twofalsely opposed models; economic progress and demographic transition in poorcountries - 30 years of experience, 1950-1980; secular growth in theindustrial world; economic breakthrough in poor countries. Appendices: Crudebirth-rates; total fertility rates; crude death-rates; infant mortalityrates; real product.