内容

目次

Part 1 Introduction: why this book?; an overview on forthcomingchapters; on the incapability of making an appropriate diagnosis andprognosis of financial market crises. Part 2 Contagious financial crises ineconomic history and in the recent past: earlier contagious financial marketcrises in the history of industrialized countries; the Chilean currency andbanking crisis of 1982; the currency crises of EMS member countries in theearly 1990s; the financial market crises in Mexico, Asian countries and inthe Czech Republic in the mid of the 1990s; the crisis of the rouble and ofthe real in the late 1990s - a case of "pure contagion"?; summarizingconclusions. Part 3 Explaining the onset of financial market crises inemerging markets: the basic model (following Sachs, Tornell and Velasco);introducing credit rationing and limited liability into the Sachs, Tornelland Velasco model of 1996; a reformulation of theSachs/Tornell/Velasco-model; selective empirical evidence; conclusions. Part4 "Contagion" - what is it and who is susceptible to it?: "contagion" inrecent economic literature; contagion in epidemiology; a reinterpretation of"contagion" as a term in economics; immunization and/or prevention againstcontagion?; summary and conclusions. Part 5 A simple model of contagiousfinancial crises: the contagious set up; the first victim country; contagion;empirical evidence. Part 6 The new international financial architecture:reforms on the national level; reforms on the international level; reforms onthe supranational level; conclusions. Part 7 Final remarks: can the questionsraised in the introduction to this book be answered?; what type of minimuminformation does the IMF need for an adequate prediction of a contagiousfinancial crisis?; what sort of additional "early warning indicators" emergefrom the results of this book?; what else could be useful to better predictcontagious financial crises?; how useful/harmful can early warning indicatorsbe?; open questions for future research.