内容

目次

I. Introduction and Overview.- 1. AIM Modeling: Overview and Major Findings.- Summary.- 1.1 Introduction.- 1.2 Integrated Assessment Approach and AIM.- 1.3 Structure of the AIM Model.- 1.4 Major Findings.- References.- II. Global Modeling and Application.- 2. Long-term Scenarios based on AIM Model.- Summary.- 2.1 Introduction.- 2.2 SRES Scenarios.- 2.3 Model Description.- 2.4 Emissions Scenarios without Climate Change Policies.- 2.5 Emissions Scenarios with Climate Policies.- 2.6 Findings.- 2.7 Conclusions.- References.- 3. Potential Impacts of Global Climate Change.- Summary.- 3.1 Introduction.- 3.2 Framework of AIM/Impact Model.- 3.3 Agriculture.- 3.4 Vegetation.- 3.5 Health.- 3.6 Water.- 3.7 Climate Change Scenarios used in AIM/Impact.- 3.8 Future Direction for Model Improvement.- References.- 4. Cost Analysis of Mitigation Policies.- Summary.- 4.1 Introduction.- 4.2 Structure of AIM/CGE (Energy) for Mitigation Analysis.- 4.3 Costs of the Kyoto Protocol.- 4.4 Long-term Emissions Reduction Scenarios.- 4.5 Concluding Remarks.- References.- III. Regional and Country Modeling.- 5. Application of AIM/Enduse Model to China.- Summary.- 5.1 Introduction.- 5.2 Input Assumptions and Simulations.- 5.3 Simulation Results.- 5.4 Findings and Conclusion.- References.- 6. Application of AIM/Local Model to India using Area and Large Point Sources.- Summary.- 6.1 Introduction.- 6.2 Methodology.- 6.3 Data Sources and Coverage.- 6.4 Results.- 6.5 Conclusions.- References.- Appendix: AIM/Local Modeling Approach.- 7. Methodology for Exploring Co-benefits of CO2 and SO2 Mitigation Policies in India using AIM/Enduse Model.- Summary.- 7.1 Introduction.- 7.2 Bottom-up Modeling Framework.- 7.3 Design of Scenarios.- 7.4 Results and Analysis.- 7.5 Concluding Remarks.- References.- 8. Application of AIM/Enduse Model to Korea.- Summary.- 8.1 Introduction.- 8.2 AIM-Korea Model and Data.- 8.3 Simulation using AIM-Korea Model.- 8.4 Discussion.- References.- 9. Application of AIM/Enduse to Vietnam: A Study on Effects of CO2 Emission Reduction Targets.- Summary.- 9.1 Introduction.- 9.2 Structure of AIM/Enduse Model for Vietnam.- 9.3 Scenarios.- 9.4 Data and Assumptions.- 9.5 Simulation Results.- 9.6 Conclusions.- References.- 10. Application of AIM/Enduse Model to Japan.- Summary.- 10.1 Introduction.- 10.2 Application to Analysis of the Effects of Carbon Tax and Subsidies in Japan.- 10.3 Application of Analysis of Ancillary Benefits in Prefectures.- 10.4 Development of CO2 Emission Scenarios in Japan.- 10.5 Concluding Remarks.- References.- 11. AIM/Material Model.- Summary.- 11.1 Introduction.- 11.2 Structure of AIM/Material Model.- 11.3 Application of AIM/Material to Japan.- 11.4 Application of AIM/Material to India.- 11.5 Conclusion.- References.- 12. Impact and Adaptation Assessment on a National Scale: Case Studies on Water in China.- Summary.- 12.1 Introduction and Framework of AIM/Impact [Country].- 12.2 Projection of Water Demand through.- 12.3 Adaptation Policies in China for Mitigating Flood Damage.- Conclusion.- References.- 13. IM/Trend: Policy Interface.- Summary.- 13.1 Introduction.- 13.2 Structure of AIM/Trend Model.- 13.3 Middle-term Economy, Energy, Environment Scenario Simulation in the Asia-Pacific Region.- Concluding Remarks.- References.- 14. AIM/Common Database: A Tool for AIM Family Linkage.- Summary.- 14.1 Background.- 14.2 Outline of AIM/Database.- 14.3 AIM/Primary Database.- 14.4 AIM/Common Database.- 14.5 Development and Management of AIM/Common Database.- 14.6 An Example: How to Interact with AIM Family Models.- 14.7 Concluding Remarks.- References.- IV. Manual.- A Guide to AIM/Enduse model.- 1. AIM/Enduse: An Overview.- 1.1 Introduction.- 1.2 Concept of the Model.- 1.3 AIM/Enduse Software.- 2. Theoretical Formulation of AIM/Enduse.- 2.1 Indices and Sets.- 2.2 Expression for Emission Quantity Estimation.- 2.3 Expressions for Constraints.- 2.4 Internal Service and Internal Energy Balance.- 2.5 Stock Balance.- 2.6 Expressions for Cost.- 2.7 Objective function.- 3. Methodology for Data Preparation.- 3.1 Choice of Start Year, End Year, and Discount Rate.- 3.2 Classification of Region, Energy, Sectors and Services.- 3.3 Classification and Definition of Technologies.- 3.4 Estimation of Data for Start Year.- 3.5 Projection of Service Demands.- 3.6 Projection of Improvement in Devices.- 3.7 Projection of Maximum Share of Devices.- 4. Illustration of AIM-India.- 4.1 Start Year, End Year, and Discount rate.- 4.2 Choice of Sectors and Services.- 4.3 Classification and Definition of Technologies.- 4.4 Estimation of Data for Start Year.- 4.5 Projection of Service Demands.- 4.6 Improvement of Technological Performance and Service Efficiency.- 4.7 Design of Scenarios.- 4.8 Tentative Results from AIM-India.- 5. Illustration of AIM-Japan.- 5.1 Start Year, End Year, and Discount Rate.- 5.2 Choice of Sectors and Services.- 5.3 Estimation of Energy Data.- 5.4 Classification and Definition of Technology Systems.- 5.5 Estimation of Energy Device Data.- 5.6 Projection of Service Demands.- 5.7 Case Study of AIM-Japan.- References.- Appendix A: Terms of Reference.- Appendix B: Description of GAMS Files and Code.- Appendix C: AIM/Enduse Database System and Implementation.- Appendix D: Possible Classifications for Sectors and Services.- Appendix E: Partial List of Internationally Published Sources of Relevant Data.- Appendix F: Characteristics of Selected Technologies.- Appendix G: Typical Numbers for Characteristics of Some Removal Processes.- Appendix H: Calorific Value, Price, and Emission Coefficients of Energy Kinds.- Appendix I: Units and Conversions.- Appendix J: Representation of Technology Systems in AIM-India.- Appendix K: Characteristics of Technologies in AIM-India.- Appendix L: Representation of Technology Systems in AIM-Japan.- Appendix M: Characteristics of Technologies in AIM-Japan.