目次

Preface Introduction 1. Theory of Surprise Part I: The Theory of Surprise Applied 2. Surprise at the Top of the World 3. Surprise and the Non-State Actor 4. Déjà Vu? Comparing Pearl Harbor and 9/11 Part II: Surprise and Deterrence Failure 5. The Balance of Power Paradox 6. Deterring the Weak: Problems and Prospects Part III: Avoiding Surprise: Toward a New Intelligence Doctrine 7. Red Teaming Surprise 8. Indications and Warning in an Age of Uncertainty 9. From Combined Arms to Combined Intelligence: Philosophy, Doctrine and Operations 10. Conclusion