内容

目次

Foreword xvii Preface xix Author Biography xxiii I Introduction 1 1 Civil Engineering Systems and Their Evolution 3 1.0 Introduction 3 1.1 Civil Engineering Systems and Historical Developments 3 1.2 Civil Engineering System???The Branches 8 1.3 Final Comments on the Historical Evolution and Future of Civil Engineering Systems 44 Summary 45 Exercises 45 References 46 Useful Resources 49 2 Fundamental Concepts in Systems Engineering 50 2.0 Introduction 50 2.1 What Is a System? 50 2.2 Systems Considerations in Civil Engineering 60 2.3 Development of Civil Engineering Systems 63 2.4 Some Terms and Concepts Related to Systems Thinking 66 2.5 Global Initiatives in the Study of Systems 68 Summary 70 Exercises 70 References 71 Useful Resources 72 3 Goals and Objectives of Civil Engineering Systems 74 3.0 Introduction 74 3.1 Hierarchy of Desired Outcomes: Values, Goals, and Objectives 75 3.2 Common MOEs Used in Decision Making at Any Phase of System Development 82 3.3 Goals and MOEs at Each Phase of Civil Engineering Systems Development 91 3.4 Desired Properties of a Set of MOEs for a Given Analysis 95 3.5 Overall Discussion of Engineering Systems Goals and Objectives 95 Summary 96 Exercises 97 References 98 Useful Resources 98 II The Tasks at Each Phase of Systems Development 99 4 Tasks within the Phases of Systems Development 101 4.0 Introduction 101 4.1 The Task of Description 103 4.2 Traditional Tasks of Analyzing Systems in Civil Engineering 111 4.3 The Task of System Evaluation 113 4.4 The Task of Feedback between Phases 117 4.5 Examples of Tasks at Each Phase of Systems Development 118 Summary 123 Exercises 123 References 124 III Tools Needed to Carry Out the Tasks 125 5 Probability 127 5.0 Introduction 127 5.1 Set Theory 129 5.2 Some Basic Concepts in Probability 132 5.3 Random Variables 140 5.4 Probability Functions 142 5.5 Discrete Probability Distributions 149 5.6 Continuous Probability Distributions 157 5.7 Common Terminology in Probabilistic Analysis 159 Summary 161 Exercises 162 References 164 Useful Resources 164 6 Statistics 165 6.0 Introduction 165 6.1 Population and Sampling 168 6.2 Descriptive Statistics 171 6.3 Inferential Statistics 177 6.4 Hypothesis Testing 189 6.5 Some Common Terminology and Concepts in Engineering Statistics 197 Summary 197 Exercises 198 References 200 Useful Resources 200 7 Modeling 201 7.0 Introduction 201 7.1 Steps for Developing Statistical Models 201 7.2 Model Specifications in Statistical Modeling 215 7.3 Some Important Issues in Statistical Modeling 228 7.4 Glossary of Modeling Terms 234 Exercises 235 References 238 Useful Resources 239 8 Simulation 240 8.0 Introduction 240 8.1 Simulation Terminology 243 8.2 Categories of Simulation 244 8.3 Random Number Generation 247 8.4 Monte Carlo Simulation 255 Summary 263 Exercises 264 References 265 Useful Resources 266 9 Optimization 267 9.0 Introduction 267 9.1 Unconstrained Optimization Using Calculus 276 9.2 Constrained Optimization Using Calculus 281 9.3 Constrained Optimization Using Mathematical Programming Techniques 283 9.4 Constrained Optimization Involving Binary Decision Variables 300 9.5 Search for the Optimal Solution???Quicker and Efficient Techniques 307 9.6 Discussions and Final Comments 313 Summary 316 Exercises 316 References 320 10 Cost Analysis 321 10.0 Introduction 321 10.1 System Cost Classifications 321 10.2 Costs Incurred by System Owner/Operator 327 10.3 Costs Incurred by the System User 328 10.4 Costs Incurred by the Community 335 10.5 System Costs Categorized by Phase of System Development 338 10.6 Average and Marginal Cost Concepts 341 10.7 Cost Estimation at the Construction Phase 343 10.8 Issues in Systems Costing 353 Summary 362 Exercises 363 References 365 Useful Resources 367 11 Economic Analysis 368 11.0 Introduction 368 11.1 Basic Concepts in Economic Analysis 369 11.2 Interest Formulas (or Equivalence Equations) 375 11.3 Criteria for Economic Analysis 380 11.4 Discussion of Relative Merits of the Economic Efficiency Criteria 385 11.5 Effect of Evaluation Parameters on the Evaluation Outcome 390 11.6 Effect of Analysis Period on Systems Evaluation 395 11.7 Perpetuity Considerations 397 11.8 Some Key Considerations in Monetary LCCA 398 11.9 Economic Efficiency Analysis???Issues and Limitations 399 Summary 403 Exercises 403 References 405 Useful Resources 406 12 Multiple–Criteria Analysis 407 12.0 Introduction 407 12.1 Framework for MCDM Analysis Using Multiattribute Utility Theory 410 12.2 Establishing the Weights of Decision Criteria 416 12.3 Scaling of the Decision Criteria 420 12.4 Amalgamation 428 12.5 Prefrence versus Nonpreference Approaches for Weighting, Scaling, or Amalgamation (WSA) 443 Summary 445 Exercises 445 References and Resources 447 Useful Resources 448 Appendix 12.1 449 13 Risk and Reliability 450 13.0 Introduction 450 13.1 Certainty, Risk, and Uncertainty 451 13.2 Uncertainties in System Development 452 13.3 The Management of Risks and Uncertainties 454 13.4 The Basics of Reliability 459 13.5 Common Contexts of Reliability Analysis in Civil Engineering 462 13.6 Laboratory and Field Testing of System Reliability 482 13.7 Reliability–Based Design of Civil Engineering Systems 483 13.8 System Reliability and System Resilience 484 Summary 486 Exercises 487 References 488 Useful Resources 490 14 System Dynamics 491 14.0 Introduction 491 14.1 Some Basic Concepts In System Dynamics 492 14.2 Variable versus Time (VVT) Patterns in System Dynamics Modeling 494 14.3 Causal Loop Diagrams (the Concept of Feedback) 496 14.4 Stocks and Flows 498 14.5 Framework for Systems Dynamics Analysis 501 14.6 Some Past Applications of Systems Dynamics at Civil System Development Phases 502 14.7 Chaos Theory 503 Summary 504 Exercises 504 References 505 Useful Resources 505 15 Real Options Analysis 507 15.0 Introduction 507 15.1 Real Options Taxonomy 511 15.2 Categories of Real Options 512 15.3 Valuing Flexibility in Real Options Analysis 517 15.4 Real Options Case Examples in Civil Engineering 522 15.5 Numerical Example 524 Summary 526 Exercises 526 References 527 Useful Resources 528 16 Decision Analysis 529 16.0 Introduction 529 16.1 General Contexts of Decision Making 529 16.2 Basic Process of Decision Making and Relevant Tools 530 16.3 Classification of Decision Models 531 16.4 Decision Making Associated with Uncertainty 533 16.5 Inputs for Uncertainty–Based Decision Making 535 16.6 Decisions under Risk 536 16.7 Decisions under Uncertainty 541 16.8 Other Techniques for Modeling Decisions 546 16.9 Impact of Decision–Maker???s Risk Preferences on Decision Making 547 Summary 548 Exercises 548 References 549 17 Network Analysis Tools 550 17.0 Introduction 550 17.1 Fundamentals of Graph Theory 551 17.2 Trees, Spanning Trees, and Minimum Spanning Trees 554 17.3 Shortest Path through a Network 557 17.4 Maximum Flow Problem 560 17.5 Locating Facilities on Civil Engineering Networks 561 17.6 Network Connectivity 564 17.7 Optimal Coverage of Networks 568 17.8 Optimal Shipping across Origin???Destination (O???D) Pairs in a Network 573 17.9 Network Applications in Project Management 582 Summary 587 Exercises 587 References 592 Useful Resources 594 18 Queuing Analysis 595 18.0 Introduction 595 18.1 Attributes of a Queuing Process 596 18.2 Performance of Queuing Processes 600 18.3 Role of Markov Chains in Queuing Analysis 601 18.4 Notations for Describing Queuing Processes 602 18.5 Analysis of Selected Queuing Process Configurations 603 18.6 Concluding Remarks on Queuing Analysis 609 Summary 611 Exercises 611 References 613 Useful Resources 613 IV The Phases of Systems Development 615 19 The Needs Assessment Phase 617 19.0 Introduction 617 19.1 Assessment of System Needs 619 19.2 Mechanisms for Assessing System Needs 627 19.3 Assessing System Needs Using User–Targeted Mechanisms 628 19.4 Assessing Long–Term System Needs via Demand and Supply Trends 629 19.5 Optimal Scheduling of Supply???Mathematical Derivations 635 19.6 Some Issues and Considerations in Needs Assessment 642 Summary 648 Exercises 648 References 649 Useful Resources 650 20 Systems Planning 651 20.0 Introduction 651 20.1 Brief History of Civil Systems Planning 652 20.2 Dimensions (Perspectives) of Civil System Planning 652 20.3 Rationale and Impetus for System Planning 656 20.4 Evolving and Emerging Contexts of Systems Planning 657 20.5 Principles of Civil Systems Planning 659 20.6 System Planning Process 662 20.7 Barriers to Effective Planning 669 20.8 Computations in Civil Systems Planning 670 Summary 675 Exercises 675 References 677 Useful Resources 678 21 System Design 679 21.0 Introduction 679 21.1 Classifications of Engineering Design 680 21.2 Engineering Design Process 682 21.3 Applications of Systems Design in Selected Areas of Civil Engineering 694 21.4 Considerations in Civil Engineering Systems Design 697 21.5 Design Failures in Civil Engineering 701 21.6 Some Design Computations 703 Summary 706 Exercises 707 References 709 Useful Resources 711 22 Systems Construction 712 22.0 Introduction 712 22.1 Stages of the System Construction Phase 714 22.2 Project Delivery Options and Contracting Approaches 717 22.3 Construction Cost Analysis 722 22.4 General Decision Contexts in Construction That Merit Application of Systems Concepts 726 22.5 Managing Risks at the Construction Phase 739 22.6 Emerging and Evolving Issues in Civil Systems Construction 748 Summary 750 Exercises 751 References 752 Useful Resources 756 23 System Operations 757 23.0 Introduction 757 23.1 Definition 757 23.2 General Duties at the Operations Phase 760 23.3 Some Problem Contexts at the Operations Phase of Selected Types of Civil Engineering (CE) Systems 761 23.4 Numerical Examples of Application of Tools in CE System Operations 763 Summary 778 Exercises 778 References 781 Useful Resources 781 24 System Monitoring 784 24.0 Introduction 784 24.1 Basic Elements of System Monitoring 784 24.2 Purposes of System Monitoring 785 24.3 Typical Architecture of a System Monitoring Program 791 24.4 Sensing and Detection Mechanisms 793 24.5 Cost–Effective Reliability–based Sampling for System Monitoring 798 24.6 Monitoring of Specific Civil Engineering Systems 800 24.7 Planning for System Monitoring/Inspection (M/I) 803 24.8 Monitoring the System Users 807 Summary 809 Exercises 810 References 811 Useful Resources 813 25 System Preservation (Maintenance and Rehabilitation) 815 25.0 Introduction 815 25.1 Basic Terminologies in System Preservation 820 25.2 Specific Tasks at the System Preservation Phase 823 25.3 Identifying the Appropriate Preservation Treatment at a Given Time 845 25.4 Development of System Preservation Schedules 848 25.5 Impediments to the Prescription of Preservation Treatments or and Schedules 852 25.6 Concluding Remarks 852 Summary 853 Exercises 854 References 855 Useful Resources 856 26 System End of Life 858 26.0 Introduction 858 26.1 System Life Definitions 858 26.2 End of Physical Life???The Causes 862 26.3 Applications of Life Estimates in Systems Management 865 26.4 Predicting the Longevity of Civil Engineering Systems 866 26.5 Quantifying System Vulnerability to Destruction 880 26.6 End–of–Life Options 881 26.7 Feedback to Preceding Phases 882 26.8 Typical Life Expectancies of Common Civil Engineering Systems 883 26.9 Concluding Remarks 884 Summary 884 Exercises 885 References 886 Useful Resources 887 V Other Topics Related to Civil Systems Development 889 27 Threats, Exposure, and System Resilience 891 27.0 Introduction 891 27.1 Categories of Threats to Civil Engineering Systems 893 27.2 Threat Types 894 27.3 The Threat of Climate Change 901 27.4 Exposure to Threats 907 27.5 Resilience of Civil Engineering Systems 908 27.6 Combining Threat Likelihood, Public Exposure, and System Resilience for Decision Making 918 Summary 923 Exercises 923 References 925 Useful Resources 927 28 Sustainability 929 28.0 Introduction 929 28.1 Motivations for the Drive toward Sustainability in the Current Era 934 28.2 Principles of Sustainability 935 28.3 Evolution of Global Policy on Sustainability 938 28.4 Elements of Sustainability 939 28.5 Combined Indicators of Sustainability 947 28.6 Dimensions of Sustainability 950 28.7 Systems Concepts in Sustainability Modeling 950 28.8 Sustainability Considerations at Each Phase of System Development 953 28.9 Modeling the Impact of Human Actions on Sustainability 957 28.10 Incorporating Sustainability into Project???And Network–Level Evaluation 962 28.11 Specific Sustainability Considerations in Civil Engineering Disciplines 962 28.12 Sustainability???Some Interesting Finales of the Discussion 964 Summary 967 Exercises 968 References 969 Useful Resources 972 29 Ethics and Legal Issues in Civil Systems Development 973 29.0 Introduction 973 29.1 Ethics in Civil Systems Development 975 29.2 Legal Issues in Civil Systems Development 988 Summary 1000 Exercises 1000 References 1001 Useful Resources 1003 30 Epilogue 1004 Appendix 1: Common Probability Distributions 1009 Appendix 2: Standard Normal Curve and Student t Distribution 1011 Appendix 3: Approximate Unit Costs of Some Civil Engineering Systems 1014 Appendix 4: Compound Interest Factors for 5% Interest Rate 1016 Index 1019