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Contents: Introduction Arturo Estrella PART I WHAT IS A RECESSION? 1. Geoffrey H. Moore (1967), `What is a Recession?', American Statistician, 21 (4), October, 16-9 2. Allan P. Layton and Anirvan Banerji (2003), 'What is a Recession?: A Reprise', Applied Economics, 35 (16), 1789-97 3. Arthur F. Burns and Wesley C. Mitchell (1946), `Working Plans', in Measuring Business Cycles, Chapter 1, New York, NY, USA: National Bureau of Economic Research, 3-22 4. Arthur F. Burns and Wesley C. Mitchell (1946), `Dating Specific and Business Cycles', in Measuring Business Cycles, Chapter 4, New York, NY, USA: National Bureau of Economic Research, 56-114 5. Geoffrey H. Moore (1958), `Measuring Recessions', Journal of the American Statistical Association, 53 (282), June, 259-316 6. James D. Hamilton (1989), `A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle', Econometrica, 57 (2), March, 357-84 7. Michael D. Boldin (1994), `Dating Turning Points in the Business Cycle', Journal of Business, 67 (1), January, 97-131 8. Don Harding and Adrian Pagan (2003), `A Comparison of Two Business Cycle Dating Methods', Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 27 (9), July, 1681-90 9. Joao Victor Issler and Farshid Vahid (2006), `The Missing Link: Using the NBER Recession Indicator to Construct Coincident and Leading Indices of Economic Activity', Journal of Econometrics, 132 (1), May, 281-303 10. James H. Stock and Mark W. Watson (2010), `Indicators for Dating Business Cycles: Cross-History Selection and Comparisons', American Economic Review: Papers and Proceedings, 100 (2), May, 16-9 PART II WHAT CAUSES RECESSIONS? 11. Christina D. Romer and David H. Romer (1989), `Does Monetary Policy Matter? A New Test in the Spirit of Friedman and Schwartz', in Olivier Jean Blanchard and Stanley Fischer (eds), NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1989, Cambridge, MA, USA and London, UK: MIT Press, 121-70 12. Ben S. Bernanke, Mark Gertler and Mark Watson (1997), `Systematic Monetary Policy and the Effects of Oil Price Shocks', Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 1997 (1), 91-157 13. Christopher A. Sims and Tao Zha (2006), `Does Monetary Policy Generate Recessions?', Macroeconomic Dynamics, 10 (2), April, 231-72 14. Marvin Goodfriend (2007), `How the World Achieved Consensus on Monetary Policy', Journal of Economic Perspectives, 21 (4), Fall, 47-68 15. Tobias Adrian and Arturo Estrella (2008), `Monetary Tightening Cycles and the Predictability of Economic Activity', Economics Letters, 99 (2), May, 260-64 16. Christopher Allsopp and David Vines (2005), `The Macroeconomic Role of Fiscal Policy', Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 21 (4), Winter, 485-508 17. Gary D. Hansen and Edward C. Prescott (1993), `Did Technology Shocks Cause the 1990-1991 Recession?', American Economic Review: Papers and Proceedings, 83 (2), May, 280-86 18. Giovanni Caggiano, Efrem Castelnuovo and Nicolas Groshenny (2014), `Uncertainty Shocks and Unemployment Dynamics in U.S. Recessions', Journal of Monetary Economics, 67, October, 78-92 19. Charlotte Christiansen (2013), `Predicting Severe Simultaneous Recessions Using Yield Spreads as Leading Indicators', Journal of International Money and Finance, 32, February, 1032-43 PART III HOW DO RECESSIONS END? 20. John B. Taylor (1993), `Discretion versus Policy Rules in Practice', Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, 39, December, 195-214 21. Paul Krugman (2005), `Is Fiscal Policy Poised for a Comeback?', Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 21 (4), Winter, 515-23 22. Alan J. Auerbach and Yuriy Gorodnichenko (2012), `Measuring the Output Responses to Fiscal Policy', American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, 4 (2), May, 1-27 PART IV THE EFFECTS OF RECESSION: LABOR MARKETS 23. John Roberts (1987), `An Equilibrium Model with Involuntary Unemployment at Flexible, Competitive Prices and Wages', American Economic Review, 77 (5), December, 856-74 24. Kenneth Clark, Derek Leslie and Elizabeth Symons (1994), `The Costs of Recession', Economic Journal, 104 (422), January, 20-36 25. Truman Bewley (1999), `Work Motivation', Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, 81 (3), May-June, 35-49 26. Lisa B. Kahn (2010), `The Long-Term Labor Market Consequences of Graduating from College in a Bad Economy', Labour Economics, 17 (2), April, 303-16 27. Steven J. Davis and Till von Wachter (2011), `Recessions and the Costs of Job Loss', Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 2011 (2), Fall, 1-55 Volume II Contents: Introduction An introduction to both volumes by the editor appears in Volume I PART I THE EFFECTS OF RECESSION: OTHER SYSTEMIC EFFECTS 1. Min Ouyang (2009), `The Scarring Effect of Recessions', Journal of Monetary Economics, 56 (2), March, 184-99 2. Arturo Estrella (2004), `The Cyclical Behavior of Optimal Bank Capital', Journal of Banking and Finance, 28 (6), June, 1469-98 3. Alessandro Beber and Michael W. Brandt (2010), `When it Cannot Get Better or Worse: The Asymmetric Impact of Good and Bad News on Bond Returns in Expansions and Recessions', Review of Finance, 14 (1), January, 119-55 4. Kyle Bagwell and Robert W. Staiger (1997), `Collusion over the Business Cycle', RAND Journal of Economics, 28 (1), Spring, 82-106 5. Gadi Barlevy (2002), `The Sullying Effect of Recessions', Review of Economic Studies, 69 (1), January, 65-96 6. Kwan Ok Lee and Gary Painter (2013), `What Happens to Household Formation in a Recession', Journal of Urban Economics, 76, July, 93-109 7. Elizabeth A.M. Searing (2013), `Love Thy Neighbor? Recessions and Interpersonal Trust in Latin America', Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, 94, October, 68-79 8. Paola Giuliano and Antonio Spilimbergo (2014), `Growing Up in a Recession', Review of Economic Studies, 81 (2), April, 787-817 9. Alexandra Graddy-Reed and Maryann P. Feldman (2015), `Stepping Up: An Empirical Analysis of the Role of Social Innovation in Response to an Economic Recession', Cambridge Journal of Regions, Economy and Society, 8 (2), July, 293-312 10. Christopher J. Ruhm (2000), `Are Recessions Good for Your Health?', Quarterly Journal of Economics, 115 (2), May, 617-50 11. Jan Boone and Jan C. van Ours (2006), `Are Recessions Good for Workplace Safety?', Journal of Health Economics, 25 (6), November, 1069-93 12. Melissa McInerney and Jennifer M. Mellor (2012), `Recessions and Seniors' Health, Health Behaviors, and Healthcare Use: Analysis of the Medicare Current Beneficiary Survey', Journal of Health Economics, 31 (5), September, 744-51 13. Ehsan Latif (2014), `The Impact of Recession on Drinking and Smoking Behaviours in Canada', Economic Modelling, 42, October, 43-56 PART II FORECASTING RECESSIONS 14. James H. Stock and Mark W. Watson (1989), `New Indexes of Coincident and Leading Economic Indicators', in Olivier Jean Blanchard and Stanley Fischer (eds), NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1989, Cambridge, MA, USA and London, UK: MIT Press, 351-94 15. Arturo Estrella and Gikas A. Hardouvelis (1991), `The Term Structure as a Predictor of Real Economic Activity', Journal of Finance, XLVI (2), June, 555-76 16. Benjamin M. Friedman and Kenneth N. Kuttner (1993), `Why Does the Paper-Bill Spread Predict Real Economic Activity?', in James H. Stock and Mark W. Watson (eds), Business Cycles, Indicators, and Forecasting: National Bureau of Economic Research, Studies in Business Cycles, Volume 28, Chapter 5, Chicago, IL, USA and London, UK: University of Chicago Press, 213-53 17. Arturo Estrella and Frederic S. Mishkin (1997), `The Predictive Power of the Term Structure of Interest Rates in Europe and the United States: Implications for the European Central Bank', European Economic Review, 41 (7), July, 1375-1401 18. Arturo Estrella and Frederic S. Mishkin (1998), `Predicting U.S. Recessions: Financial Variables as Leading Indicators', Review of Economics and Statistics, 80 (1), February, 45-61 19. Henri Bernard and Stefan Gerlach (1998), `Does the Term Structure Predict Recessions? The International Evidence', International Journal of Finance and Economics, 3 (3), July, 195-215 20. Arturo Estrella, Anthony P. Rodrigues and Sebastian Schich (2003), `How Stable is the Predictive Power of the Yield Curve? Evidence from Germany and the United States', Review of Economics and Statistics, 85 (3), August, 629-44 21. Arturo Estrella (2005), `Why Does the Yield Curve Predict Output and Inflation?', Economic Journal, 115 (505), July, 722-44, A1-A2 22. Agustin Duarte, Ioannis A. Venetis and Ivan Paya (2005), `Predicting Real Growth and the Probability of Recession in the Euro Area Using the Yield Spread', International Journal of Forecasting, 21 (2), April-June, 261-77 23. Arturo Estrella and Mary R. Trubin (2006), `The Yield Curve as a Leading Indicator: Some Practical Issues', Federal Reserve Bank of New York: Current Issues in Economics and Finance, 12 (5), July/August, 1-7 24. Charlotte Christiansen, Jonas Nygaard Eriksen and Stig Vinther Moller (2014), `Forecasting US Recessions: The Role of Sentiment', Journal of Banking and Finance, 49, December, 459-68 25. John C. Bluedorn, Jorg Decressin and Marco E. Terrones (2016), 'Do Asset Price Drops Foreshadow Recessions?', International Journal of Forecasting, 32 (2), April-June, 518-26 26. Marcelle Chauvet and Simon Potter (2005), `Forecasting Recessions Using the Yield Curve', Journal of Forecasting, 24 (2), March, 77-103 27. Heikki Kauppi and Pentti Saikkonen (2008), `Predicting U.S. Recessions with Dynamic Binary Response Models', Review of Economics and Statistics, 90 (4), November, 777-91 28. Par OEsterholm (2012), `The Limited Usefulness of Macroeconomic Bayesian VARs When Estimating the Probability of a US Recession', Journal of Macroeconomics, 34 (1), March, 76-86 29. Glenn D. Rudebusch and John C. Williams (2009), `Forecasting Recessions: The Puzzle of the Enduring Power of the Yield Curve', Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 27 (4), October, 492-503 PART III IDENTIFYING RECESSIONS IN REAL TIME 30. Marcelle Cha