内容

目次

Preface IX Invitation to Explore IX What Will You Learn? XIII What Are the Components of the Book? XIV What Is the Structure of the Book? XV Who Is the Book for and How to Use It? XVII Before You Start XIX Acknowledgments XIX References XIX 1. Introducing a Durable Product in a New Market 1 1.1 Introduction 1 1.2 Your Briefing for the Business Challenge in Plutonia 2 1.3 Managing NewTel?fs New Business in the Simplest Scenario: Business as Usual 14 1.4 A Competitive Scenario: Compete for Customers 19 1.5 Outcomes of Both Scenarios in Terms of Key Performance Indicators 27 1.6 Chapter Summary 30 1.7 Questions and Challenges 30 1.8 References 31 2. Capturing Customer Dynamics Driven by Diffusion 33 2.1 Introduction 33 2.2 Diffusion: A Regular Dynamic in Social Systems 34 2.2.1 ?gGoing viral?h 34 2.2.2 A Story about Selling Mobile Phones 36 2.1.3 Diffusion Is Based on a Network of Variables and Causal Relationships 44 2.1.4. Causal Diagrams Reveal the Causal Structure 52 2.2 Structure and Dynamics of New Product Diffusion 68 2.2.1 Your First Simulation Model 68 2.2.2 Feedback Loops 75 2.2.3 Reinforcing Feedback and Exponential Growth 77 2.2.4 Balancing Feedback and Goal-seeking Behaviour 88 2.2.5 When the Two Feedback Loops Are Interconnected 101 2.8 Chapter Summary 112 2.9 Questions and Challenges 112 2.10 References 114 3. Effects of a Limited Product Life Cycle Duration 118 3.1 Introduction 118 3.2 The Concept of Life Cycle Duration and Its Effects on Customer Dynamics 119 3.3 Tracking Accumulated Purchases and Accumulated Customer-months 146 3.3.1 Structure 146 3.2.2 Behaviour 150 3.4 Chapter Summary 152 3.5 Questions und Challenges 153 4. The Effect of advertising spending 156 4.1 Introduction 156 4.2 Turning the Attention of Potential Customers to a Product 157 4.3 The Effect of Fixed advertising spending 158 4.3.1 Structure 158 4.3.2 Behaviour 162 4.4 The Effect of Constant advertising spending with a Limited life cycle duration 173 4.4.1 Structure 173 4.4.2 Behaviour 175 4.5 The Effect of Advertising for One Month 181 4.5.1 Structure 181 4.5.2 Behaviour 186 4.6 How Many Current Customers are Won by Winning One new customer? 192 4.6.1 Structure 192 4.6.2 Behaviour 193 4.7 Chapter Summary 197 4.8 Questions and challenges 197 4.9 References 199 5. Financial Resources 200 5.1. Introduction 200 5.2. The Structure of Revenues 201 5.2.1 The Direct Influence of prices on revenues 201 5.2.2 The Indirect Influence of price and life cycle duration on Potential customers?f Purchasing Decisions 204 5.2.3 How the effective monthly price Affects new customers and total revenues 215 5.3. The Structure of Costs 220 5.3.1 The Components of total costs 220 5.3.2 Reducing Service costs by Improving Processes 222 5.4. Behaviour: Customer Dynamics and the Accumulation of Profits 229 5.5. Chapter Summary 236 5.6. Questions and Challenges 237 5.7 References 240 6. Analysing the Market Situation with the Simulation 241 6.1 Introduction 241 6.2 Planning the Search for the Highest Possible Accumulated profits 242 6.3 Searching for Optimal Values for the Decision Variables 253 6.3.1 Searching for the Best subscription rate given a Constant sales price and life cycle duration 253 6.3.2 Searching the Optimal sales price given a Constant subscription rate and life cycle duration 257 6.3.3 Searching the Optimal life cycle duration given a Constant sales price and subscription rate 260 6.3.4 Searching for the Optimal combination of sales price, subscription rate, and life cycle duration 264 6.3.5 Searching for the Optimal Pattern of Monthly advertising spending 268 6.3.6 Searching for the Optimal Pattern of Monthly process improvement spending 273 6.3.7 Combining advertising spending and process improvement spending 278 6.4 Decisions, Behaviours, and Outcomes in the Best Case Monopoly 281 6.5 Setting your Objectives 287 6.6 Chapter Summary 289 6.7 Questions and Challenges 290 6.8 References 290 List of figure captions 292 7. Market Dynamics with a Competitor 293 7.1 Introduction 293 7.2 Competing for Potential Customers: Rivalry Type I 294 7.2.1 Structure 294 7.2.2 Behaviour 301 7.2 Competing for Current Customers: Rivalry Type II 317 7.2.1 Structure 317 7.2.2 Behaviour 322 7.3 Competing for Potential and Current Customers 328 7.3.1 The Causal Structure of Diffusion with a Competitor 328 7.3.2 Evaluating Four Exemplary Policies 346 7.4 Reflecting on Rivalry 363 7.5 Chapter Summary 366 7.6 Epilogue: Your Debriefing 368 7.7 Questions and Challenges 369 7.8 References 371 8. Relaxing Assumptions and Adding Relevant Aspects of Reality 373 8.1 Introduction 373 8.2 The Population is Not Constant 376 8.3 There Are Not only Potential Customers and Current customers 377 8.4 Current Customers Care about Quality 379 8.5 Advertising Influences Word-of-Mouth and Customers Switching 381 8.6 Mobile Phones Are Not Contracts Are Not Customers 384 8.7 More Frequent Decisions and a Longer Time Horizon 386 8.8 Contracts Do Not Change Retrospectively 387 8.9 The Number of Competitors Is Higher and Varies 396 8.10 Nonlinear Relationships Replace Causal Structure 397 8.11 The Harmonic Development of Demand and Supply Capacity: A New Book 400 8.12 Chapter Summary 403 9. System Dynamics: A Methodology for Model-based Management 406 9.1 Introduction 406 9.2 Your Mental Model of Growth from Diffusion 407 9.3 System Dynamics Modelling 411 9.3.1 The Manager as Modeler 412 9.3.2 Basic Assumptions of System Dynamics 415 9.3.3 The System Dynamics Modelling Process 418 9.4 System Dynamics Competence 421 9.4.1 Skill #1: System Dynamics Language 423 9.4.2 Skill #2: Dynamic Reasoning 424 9.4.3 Skill #3: Model Analysis 425 9.4.4 Skill #4: Project Initialization 426 9.4.5 Skill #5: Model Creation 426 9.4.6 Skill #6: Model Validation 428 9.4.7 Skill #7: Policy Evaluation and Design 429 9.4.8 Your Stage of Competence Development 430 9.5 Learning and Applying System Dynamics 431 9.6 References 433 Index 435 Figures 438 Tables 443 Index of Principles 445 Index of Guidelines 446 Index of Management Insights 448 Index of Systems Insights 450 Index of Toolboxes 452 Index of DIYs 453 Abbreviations 456