目次

1. Mankind vs. Reality. 10The Science of Problem Solving. 11References. 12Part One - Business and Organizational Aspects of Circular Economies. 132. Development as a Process of Organization.. 13The Organization of a Circular Economy. 15A Development Over a Century. 17References. 193. The Author?fs Journey. 20Earlier Thoughts on Sustainability, Circular Economy, and Transformation.. 21Sustainability. 21Circular Economy. 22Technology Development, Business Transformation, and Peak Oil 23References. 234. The Circular Economy and Business Challenges. 25Understanding Innovation and Business Development 26Imminent Threats. 28Crossing the Chasm - from Idealistic to Demanding Customers. 30Carbon Dioxide and Global Warming vs. Resource Depletion.. 31The Experience Curve. 32References. 335. Complexity - The Tightly Woven Fabric of Society. 34Complexity in Modern Society. 34The Increasing Specialization in the Linear Economy. 36Increasing Specialization of the Circular Economy. 37References. 386. Could Resource Shortages Cause Problems?. 39Complex Development 41A Development in Steps. 42Driving Change. 46A Collaborative Effort 46A Systems Perspective. 47References. 477. Multiple Helix Collaboration for the Development of a Circular Economy. 48A Multipe-Helix Innovation System.. 48The Role of Governments. 49Research and Training. 51Non-Government Organizations. 52Civic Society and the General Public. 53Company and Public Sector Procurement 54References. 558. Managing Change. 56Change Management 58Examples of Roles. 60Early Phases of Transformation.. 60The Savings Paradox. 61Dismantling Obsolete Systems. 63Mind-Set and Behaviour Change. 64Leading Through Change. 64The Resource Based View of Business Strategy. 66References. 68Part Two - Challenges by industry and business sector 699. Local Production and Distribution Systems. 69The Current Situation.. 70Transformation to Local Production and Distribution Systems. 70The Development of Local Markets. 71Efficient Systems for Local Production.. 72Local Value Chains. 73Local Food Production.. 73Volume Growth.. 74Secondary Qualities. 76The Role of Large Firms. 77Customers Form Industries. 78Steps to Change. 78Step 1: Local Stand-Alone Concepts. 79Step 2: Local Production and Distribution Concepts. 79Step 3: Integrated Local Value Chains. 80Step 4: Volume Competition.. 81Step 5: Local and Circular Concepts Dominate. 81Disruptive Aspects of Change. 81From Global to Local Production and Distribution.. 82Procurement Strategies. 82A New Focus. 83Opportunities for Local Production Offered by Digitalization.. 84Changing Customer Preferences. 85Step 1: Indifferent Majority. 86Step 2: Emerging Preferences. 86Step 3: Widespread Adoption and Volume Growth.. 86Step 4: Circular Majority. 87Step 5: Preferences for Local and Circular Concepts Dominate. 87References. 8710. Sharing and Extended Use. 88The Present Situation.. 88Sharing Models. 88Growth Opportunities and Patterns of Use. 90The Product as a Service. 92Inexpensive Alternatives. 92Potential Growth Areas. 92Integration.. 92Flow.. 92High Value. 93Genuinely Circular?. 93Steps to Change. 94Step 1: Pilot Sharing Models. 95Step 2: More Customers Prioritize Sharing. 95Step 3: Sharing becomes the new normal 96Aspects of Disruptive Change. 96Extended Use. 97Services Targeted at Consumers. 97Business-to-Business. 99Steps to Product Life Extension.. 100Step 1 - Occasional Extended Use. 101Step 2: Behaviour Change and Systems in Place. 101Step 3: Extended Use Becomes a Priority. 102Step 4: Extended Use Becomes the Norm.. 103Aspects of Disruptive Change. 103References. 10311. Standardization and modularization.. 104The Development and Growth of Lean Production.. 105Design and Re-design.. 108Step 1: Pilot Modularization.. 109Step 2: Training and research.. 109Step 3: Widespread adoption.. 109Step 4: Legislation and procurement requirements. 110Step 5: Modularization Becomes the Norm.. 111Aspects of Disruptive Change. 111References. 11112. Recycling and Upcycling. 112Corporate Re-manufacturing. 113Materials Recycling. 114Materials Difficult to Recycle. 114Steps to Recycling and Upcycling. 115Step 1: Recycling and Incineration.. 115Step 2: Increased Materials Recycling. 116Step 3: Increased Upcycling. 116Step 4: Increased Use of Biologically Based Materials. 116Aspects of Disruptive Change. 116References. 11613. Biologically based materials. 117Existing value chains. 118Transforming Plastics. 118Plastics from Wood. 121Competition with Food Production.. 121The Volume Issue. 121Steps to New Materials. 123Step 1: Pilot Introduction.. 123Step 2: Volume Growth.. 124Step 3: Resource Constraints. 124Step 4: Reduction and Restructuring of Use of Materials. 124Aspects of Disruptive Change. 124References. 12514. Transportation systems, renewable fuels and energy efficiency. 126Scarcity and Climate Change. 126Reduced Dependence on Oil?. 128The British Fuel Crisis. 129The Challenge of Transportation.. 129A Web of Interrelationships. 135Saving Power in Existing Applications. 136Steps to the Transformation of Transport Systems. 138Step 1: Early Adopters and Innovators Buy. 138Step 2: Volume Growth.. 138Step 3: Electric Car Dominance. 139Step 4: The Last of Petroleum Cars. 140Steps for Heavy Vehicles. 140Market Analysis and Programme Planning. 142References. 14615. Construction, Infrastructure, and Digital Technologies. 147Examples of Circular Models in Construction Related Areas. 148Healthy and Sustainable Buildings. 148Flooring. 148Digitalization.. 149Examples of Circular Business Models Based on Digital Technologies. 149The Main Direction of Digital Development 149Brief, But Important 150References. 15016. Life Sustaining Resources and Technologies. 151Health Care. 151Utilities. 152Work. 153Risk Management 153References. 15417. Financial Innovations. 155Financial Risk Taking. 156Financial Innovations Support Circular Development 157Crowd Funding. 157Complementary Monetary Systems. 158Cryptocurrencies. 159Reforming the Global Economy?. 160Aspects of Disruptive Change. 161References. 16218. General Purpose Technologies as the Basis for Transformation.. 163The Organization of Hypocrisy and Organization Man.. 165Is Rapid Transformation Possible?. 167The Transformation of US Industry to War Production.. 168The Marshall Plan.. 169The Apollo Program.. 170Venice and the Preparations for the Fourth Crusade. 170The Volume Issue Revisited. 171References. 172Part Three - A Way Forward. 17319. Risks and Logical Fallacies. 173Great Expectations. 174Some Numbers. 176Peak Oil 176Peak Gas. 177Phosphorous. 177Rare Earth Elements. 178The Paths of Peak Resources. 178Understanding and prioritizing. 180Decision Theory. 182Fallacies of Experts and Decision Makers. 183Failure to Realise That Society is Vulnerable. 183Failure to Recognize the Scale and the Systemic Aspects. 184Failure to Understand Markets. 184Mistaking the Problem for the Solution.. 184Mistaking a High-Level Description of the Solution for the Transformation Strategy and Plan 185References. 18520. Planning The Way Forward and Reality Check. 186Steps to Circular Economic Flows. 186Step 1: Trying Out Circular Models on a Small Scale. 186Step 2: Evaluation of Progress and Simulation of Scale-Up. 186Step 3: Avoidance of Conclusions. 186Step 4: Prioritization.. 187Step 5: Development of Strategies. 187Reality Check. 187Increasing Complexity Complicates Change. 187Few Short Term Incentives to Change. 188Little Experience of Resource Shortages. 188Focus on a Description of Energy and Fuel Resources as a Sources of Pollution.. 188It Takes Time to Calibrate World-Views and Resource Needs. 188Will Decisions Be Made in Time?. 18921. Paradigms, at Last 190Scientific Revolutions. 190The Circular Economy as a Paradigm Shift 191Merging Paradigms. 192References. 193 Epilogue 194