目次

1. Introduction. Part I. The Global Economy and BRICS.- 2. BRICS in the Global Economy.- 3. Institutions, Productivity Change and Growth.- 4. The Connectedness of Business Cycles between the BRICS.- Part II. History and Driving Forces of Economic Cycles in BRICS.- 5. Economic Cycles in Brazil.- 6. Economic Fluctuations and Their Drivers in Russia.- 7. Business Cycle Measurement in India.- 8. Economic Cycles and Crises in New China.- 9. China’s Economic Cycles: Characteristics and Determinant Factors.- 10. A Brief History of Business Cycle Measurement in South Africa.- Part III. Business Tendency Surveys (BTSs) in BRICS.- 11. International Tradition of Tendency Surveys.- 12. Economic Tendency Surveys in Brazil: Main Features and Uses.- 13. Russian Business Tendency Surveys by HSE and Rosstat.- 14. Business Tendency Surveys in India.- 15. Business Tendency Surveys in China.- 16. South Africa: The BER’s Business Tendency Surveys.- Part IV. Composite Cyclical Indicators for Real-Time Monitoring and Forecasting the BRICS Economies.- 17. Compiling Cyclical Composite Indexes: The Conference Board Indicators Approach.- 18. Coincident and Leading Indicators for Brazilian Cycles.- 19. Brazilian Business Cycles as Characterized by CODACE.- 20. A Bayesian Approach to Predicting Cycles Using Composite Indicators.- 21. A Survey of Composite Leading Indices for Russia.- 22. Indices of Regional Economic Activity for Russia.- 23. An Application of the Indicator Approach to Developing Coincident and Leading Economic Indexes for India.- 24. Business Climate Indices in China.- 25. Tracking Business and Growth Cycles in the Chinese Economy Using Composite Indexes.- 26. The SARB’s Composite Business Cycle Indicators.- 27. Alternative Cycle Indicators for the South African Business Cycle.- 28. Forecasting Business Cycles in South Africa.- Part V. Concluding remarks. 29. Measurement, Monitoring, and Forecasting Economic Cycles: BRICS Lessons.