Tetlock, Philip E., Belkin, Aaron 　著

内容

目次

List of Contributors Counterfactual Thought Experiments in WorldPolitics: Logical, Methodological, and Psychological Perspectives 2Causes andCounterfactuals in Social Science: Exploring an Analogy between CellularAutomata and Historical Processes 3Counterfactual Reasoning in WesternStudies of Soviet Politics and Foreign Relations 4Confronting Hitler and ItsConsequences 5Back to the Past: Counterfactuals and the Cuban Missile Crisis6Counterfactual Reasoning in Motivational Analysis: U.S. Policy toward Iran7Counterfactuals about War and Its Absence 8Using Counterfactuals inHistorical Analysis: Theories of Revolution 9Counterfactuals andInternational Affairs: Some Insights from Game Theory 10Off-the-PathBehavior: A Game-Theoretic Approach to Counterfactuals and Its Implicationsfor Political and Historical Analysis 11Rerunning History: CounterfactualSimulation in World Politics 12Counterfactuals, Past and Future Commentary 1:Conceptual Blending and Counterfactual Argument in the Social and BehavioralSciences Commentary 2: Psychological Biases in Counterfactual ThoughtExperiments Commentary 3: Counterfactual Inferences as Instances ofStatistical Inferences Commentary 4: Counterfactuals, Causation, andComplexity References Index