Hendrickson, Noel 　著

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Acknowledgements About the Author Introduction Part I: The Background to Reasoning for Intelligence Analysts Chapter 1: An Introduction to Reasoning Chapter 2: An Introduction to Intelligence Analysis Chapter 3: An Introduction to the Information Age Part II: The Theory of Reasoning for Intelligence Analysts Paradigms of Reasoning in General Chapter 4: Important Extant Approaches to Reasoning The Structural, Informal Logical, and Elements of the Mind Paradigms Chapter 5: The Multidimensional Approach to Reasoning Introducing the Personal, Procedural, and Problem-Specific Dimensions Chapter 6: The Personal Dimension of Reasoning Ideal Reasoning as Virtues to Embody Chapter 7: The Procedural Dimension of Reasoning Ideal Reasoning as Rules to Follow Chapter 8: The Problem-Specific Dimension of Reasoning Ideal Reasoning as Questions to Ask Part III: The Practice of Reasoning for Intelligence Analysts Methods of Reasoning in General Chapter 9: How to Know Your Personal Characteristics as an Analyst The Method of “Analytic Balance Check” Chapter 10: How to Know Your Process of Analysis The Method of “Analytic Process Reflection” Chapter 11: How to Know the Right Problem for Analysis The Method of “Analytic Problem Classification” Part IV: The Theory of Hypothesis Development for Intelligence Analysts Paradigms of Reasoning About “What is Happening?” Chapter 12: Important Extant Approaches to Hypothesis Development The Falsificationist, Bayesian, and Explanationist Paradigms Chapter 13: The Multidimensional Approach to Hypothesis Development Introducing the Idea, Information, and Implication Dimensions Part V: The Practice of Hypothesis Development for Intelligence Analysts Methods of Reasoning About “What is Happening?” Chapter 14: How to Generate New Ideas The Method of “Dialectical Hypothesis Generation” Chapter 15: How to Develop the Most Probable Hypothesis The Method of “Triadic Hypothesis Development” Chapter 16: How to Recognize What Has Been Taken For Granted The Method of “Underlying Assumptions Triangulation” Part VI: The Theory of Causal Analysis for Intelligence Analysts Paradigms of Reasoning About “Why This is Happening?” Chapter 17: Important Extant Approaches to Causal Analysis The Probabilistic, Interventionist, and Systems Dynamics Paradigms Chapter 18: The Multidimensional Approach to Causal Analysis Introducing the Sequence, System, and Surprise Dimensions Part VII: The Practice of Causal Analysis for Intelligence Analysts Methods of Reasoning About “Why This is Happening?” Chapter 19: How to Identify Individual Connections The Method of “Causal Influence Classification” Chapter 20: How to Identify Collective Connections The Method of “Causal Loop Diagramming” Chapter 21: How to Identify Unexpected Connections (And How Something is Partly an Unintended Consequence) The Method of “Background Shift Analysis” Part VIII: The Theory of Futures Exploration for Intelligence Analysts Paradigms of Reasoning About “When and Where Might This Change?” Chapter 22: Important Extant Approaches to Futures Exploration The Forecasting, Megatrend, and Scenario Paradigms Chapter 23: The Multidimensional Approach to Futures Exploration Introducing the Origin, Outreach, and Outcome Dimensions Part IX: The Practice of Futures Exploration for Intelligence Analysts Methods of Reasoning About “When and Where Might This Change?” Chapter 24: How to Find the Most Plausible Origin of a Future Possibility The Method of “Convergent Scenario Development” (Future-Directed Counterfactual Reasoning, Stage I) Chapter 25: How to Integrate a Futures Estimate into the Bigger Picture (And Foresee Possible Unintended Consequences) The Method of “Ripple Effect Analysis” (Future-Directed Counterfactual Reasoning, Stage II) Chapter 26: How to Identify the Most Plausible Future Outcomes The Method of “Divergent Scenario Development” (Future-Directed Counterfactual Reasoning, Stage III) Part X: The Theory of Strategy Assessment for Intelligence Analysts Paradigms of Reasoning About “How Can the Client Respond to It?” Chapter 27: Important Extant Approaches to Strategy Assessment The Risk, Ignorance, and Game Theory Paradigms Chapter 28: The Multidimensional Approach to Futures Exploration Introducing the Environment, Effect, and Expectation Dimensions Part XI: The Practice of Strategy Assessment for Intelligence Analysts Methods of Reasoning About “How Can the Client Respond to It?” Chapter 29: How to Support Decision-Making Without Known Outcomes or Expectations The Method of “Strategic Relevance Check” Chapter 30: How to Support Decision-Making About Known Outcomes With Unknown Expectations The Method of “Decision Significance Comparison” Chapter 31: How to Support Decision-Making About Known Outcomes With Known Expectations The Method of “Expectation Impact Analysis” Conclusion About the Author